Fed & Interest Rate Prediction Markets
Track Federal Reserve prediction markets — rate cut odds, FOMC meeting outcomes, inflation expectations, and recession probabilities.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $40.3M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $22.5M
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $20.4M
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $20.2M
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $13.0M
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $6.0M
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2026 meeting?
kalshi · General
Vol $4.3M
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $3.3M
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $3.2M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $3.0M
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?
kalshi · General
Vol $2.9M
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $2.5M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $2.4M
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $2.4M
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $2.1M
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $2.1M
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.9M
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.8M
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.7M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.7M
Will there be a recession in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $1.6M
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.5M
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.4M
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.3M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.3M
US recession by end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.3M
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before May 1, 2026?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $1.3M
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.3M
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.2M
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.2M
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.2M
Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.2M
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.1M
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.1M
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.0M
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.0M
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $1.0M
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $970K
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $953K
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $935K
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?
polymarket · General
Vol $901K
Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $892K
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $731K
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
polymarket · General
Vol $510K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $497K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $443K
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $431K
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $426K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $407K
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $406K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?
polymarket · General
Vol $376K
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket · General
Vol $374K
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $308K
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $282K
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
polymarket · General
Vol $276K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $268K
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $265K
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $257K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
polymarket · General
Vol $228K
Will the Fed cut rates 3 times?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $226K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $224K
Will the Fed cut rates more than 25 bps in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $220K
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $217K
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
polymarket · General
Vol $217K
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.0% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $214K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $212K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $209K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $206K
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
polymarket · General
Vol $206K
Will the Fed cut rates 4 times?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $196K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $189K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $188K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $183K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $180K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $177K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $174K
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $172K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $172K
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $162K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $162K
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · Economy
Vol $161K
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $161K
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $158K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $154K
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $143K
Will the Fed cut rates 5 times?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $142K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $139K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $137K
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
polymarket · General
Vol $133K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $125K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $125K
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $121K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $119K
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · Economy
Vol $116K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $112K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $112K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $108K
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $107K
Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $106K
Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · Economy
Vol $105K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.1% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $103K
Will the Fed cut rates 0 times at emergency meetings?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $96K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $95K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?
polymarket · General
Vol $91K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $89K
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $83K
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
polymarket · General
Vol $82K
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?
polymarket · Economy
Vol $76K
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $76K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $75K
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $74K
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $73K
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March?
polymarket · General
Vol $73K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $72K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $70K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $67K
Will the Fed cut rates 1 times at emergency meetings?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $66K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $64K
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $61K
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $61K
Will Trump next nominate Stephen Miran as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $61K
Which countries will have recessions?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $59K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $56K
Will Trump next nominate Judy Shelton as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $56K
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $54K
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $51K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $47K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $44K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $44K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $44K
Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $43K
Will Any Court rule that the 2024 USA Federal Election was Fraudulent?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $42K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $42K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $41K
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $37K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $35K
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
polymarket · General
Vol $35K
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $34K
Will Craig Federighi be the next CEO of Apple?
polymarket · General
Vol $32K
Which countries will have recessions?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $31K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
polymarket · General
Vol $31K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $30K
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $29K
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $29K
Which countries will have recessions?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $28K
Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $27K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $26K
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
polymarket · General
Vol $26K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $25K
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $24K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $23K
Will Trump next nominate Rick Rieder as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $23K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $23K
Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $23K
How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $21K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $20K
Which countries will have recessions?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $18K
Will Trump next nominate Kevin Hassett as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $17K
Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $17K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $15K
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
polymarket · General
Vol $15K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $15K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $14K
Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $13K
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $12K
Will any America Party candidate be on a federal or gubernatorial ballot before 2027?
kalshi · Elections
Vol $11K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $11K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $11K
Inflation surge in 2026?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $10K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $10K
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $9K
How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $9K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $9K
Will Kevin Cramer vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $9K
Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $9K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $8K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $8K
yes Erick Fedde: 5+,yes Michael Wacha: 6+
kalshi · General
Vol $8K
Will Tim Scott vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $8K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $8K
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
polymarket · General
Vol $7K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $7K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $7K
Will legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $6K
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their April 2026 meeting?
kalshi · General
Vol $6K
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron?
kalshi · Companies
Vol $6K
Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $6K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $6K
Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $6K
How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $6K
Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $5K
Will any federal appellate court (including the U.S. Supreme Court) rule reverses or vacates the district court's November 24, 2025 order dismissing the indictment of James Comey, such that the criminal prosecution may proceed?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $5K
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $5K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $5K
Will Armenian Revolutionary Federation win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
polymarket · General
Vol $5K
Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
kalshi · Politics
Vol $5K
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $4K
yes Brandon Pfaadt: 3+,yes Taijuan Walker: 2+,yes Casey Mize: 3+,yes Janson Junk: 3+,yes Edward Cabrera: 5+,yes Braxton Ashcraft: 3+,yes Joe Ryan: 4+,yes Eric Lauer: 3+,yes Jacob Lopez: 3+,yes Kodai Senga: 4+,yes Erick Fedde: 2+,yes Michael Wacha: 3+,yes Max Fried: 4+,yes Nick Martinez: 3+,yes Kyle Harrison: 4+,yes Foster Griffin: 3+,yes Ranger Suárez: 3+,yes Kyle Leahy: 3+,yes Parker Messick: 3+,yes Chris Bassitt: 3+,yes Logan Webb: 4+,yes Ryan Feltner: 2+,yes Germán Márquez: 3+,yes Emmet Sheehan: 4+,yes Jack Leiter: 4+,yes Lance McCullers: 3+,yes Luis Castillo: 4+,no Arizona wins by over 3.5 runs,no Miami wins by over 3.5 runs,no Pittsburgh wins by over 3.5 runs,no Minnesota wins by over 3.5 runs,no A's wins by over 3.5 runs,no Chicago WS wins by over 3.5 runs,no Los Angeles A wins by over 3.5 runs,no Washington wins by over 3.5 runs,no Cleveland wins by over 3.5 runs,no San Francisco wins by over 3.5 runs,no Colorado wins by over 3.5 runs,no Texas wins by over 3.5 runs,no Houston wins by over 3.5 runs,no Carolina wins by over 2.5 goals,no Columbus wins by over 2.5 goals,no Calgary wins by over 2.5 goals,no Edmonton wins by over 2.5 goals,no Florida wins by over 2.5 goals,no Minnesota wins by over 2.5 goals,no New Jersey wins by over 2.5 goals,no New York R wins by over 2.5 goals,no Ottawa wins by over 2.5 goals,no Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 goals,no St. Louis wins by over 2.5 goals,no Tampa Bay wins by over 2.5 goals,no Vancouver wins by over 2.5 goals,no Vegas wins by over 2.5 goals,no Washington wins by over 2.5 goals
kalshi · General
Vol $4K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $4K
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting?
kalshi · Economics
Vol $4K